The future may be online, but many will slip through the net
As circulations plummet, digital seems the only future for newspapers. But supposed 'trends' create a very confused picture There's an awful doubt beginning to infect the media scene as autumn comes. It takes the most commonplace assumption of newspaper life and hangs a great question mark on it. We're constantly told that newspapers as we know them are in a period of transition, moving to become purely digital papers on the web, on tablets, on mobiles, on gadgets as yet uninvented. There is light at the end of a long tunnel of uncertainty, a vital transition. Yet suppose, just suppose, that there's not.
Readers who read the online runes will recognise some of the doubts involved here: advertisements priced much cheaper than print, because cyberspace is infinite and therefore infinitely available; paywalls that raise useful sums that aren't quite useful enough; tablet efforts such as Rupert Murdoch's the Daily, that begin in a blaze of publicity then disappear behind a veil of silence; phone applications that seem hugely promising until you try charging a regular rate for them.
None of this means there isn't good money to be made on the net. Some specialist sheets and smooth operators are doing that already. But your average, all-purpose paper on a standard path to survival? Forget it.
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Os leitores que lerem as runas on-line reconhecerão algumas das dúvidas aqui envolvidas: propagandas com preços muito mais baratos do que a impressão, porque o ciberespaço é infinito e, portanto, infinitamente disponível; paywalls que geram somas úteis que não são suficientemente úteis; esforços de tablet, como o Daily, de Rupert Murdoch, que começam em uma explosão de publicidade e depois desaparecem por trás de um véu de silêncio; aplicativos de telefone que parecem extremamente promissores até que você tente cobrar uma taxa regular por eles.
Nada disso significa que não há dinheiro bom para ser feito na rede. Algumas folhas especializadas e operadores suaves já estão fazendo isso. Mas a sua média, papel para todos os fins em um caminho padrão para a sobrevivência? Esqueça.